Dissipating clouds

Where I thought we’d be

Over 3 years ago, I wrote a blog post about a war that would take place between Google Vs Microsoft. What the post was really about though was a shift in the way we used computers to access and use data that I believe would be happening by now. In that post, I mention a discussion I had even a couple of years prior to that blog post. A discussion which had me debating with a friend doing his thesis on a related subject. In short this is what I believed (and still believe is the direction we should be going in):

1) Large and bulky operating systems and software wouldn’t be needed [ to be installed on individual computers ].

2) As Internet speeds steadily increased, more and more software would  be web-based and the storage that goes with these would also increase.

3) The result would be that more and more of the computing power and data-storage would actually be happening on servers (on the web) instead of our local machines. Ok now we know that as the “cloud” but that concept wasn’t really nicknamed as such backed then.

As the next logical step, the whole operating system would be hosted on the web and our machines would merely be terminals that would boot to our “computers” that would actually be instances of operating systems with blocks of storage within the cloud, on the web. So merely windows to where our data is stored online. The computing power needed for this terminal would be very minimal, our current machines would actually be way over the necessary specifications. The vast majority of the computing power would be happening in the cloud, you’d be merely accessing it via your window (terminal).

Since then we’ve seen some of those come to reality. We’re seeing more and more apps being web-based and SAAS (software as a service) which is basically just another name for web-based apps/software

For fun, here’s a little video I had embedded in that post 3 years ago:

So ok, I was on the right track, I wasn’t alone in my thinking of course, I don’t mean to try and come across as making you believe I’m some sort of Geek Prophet – LOL – I’m not – far from it…

I was just merely deducting logical outcomes based on shifts in technology uses I was observing happening around me at then time – with things like Gmail offering more and more storage and then Google coming out with their web-based office-suit type tools like docs, etc. Anyone who sat down and observed these changes and gave some thought as what it meant for the future of computing probably came to some similar conclusions.

Where we are now

Ok – so, one of the things that didn’t come true – yet –  is the fact that the whole shebang the data AND the operating system AND the software would be the cloud – as one. Now I still think this is the direction things *should* be going in – BUT with one modification. I don’t think that our local computers should be merely windows to the “cloud” anymore. This conclusion comes from my experimentation with having a hosted OS in the cloud – yes I’ve done it (it’s not as hard as it sounds to do – the technology is already in place in various places, I just worked with my programmer and made them work together ) – but by doing so, I came to a few conclusions that made me re-think so my “predictions” about how things should be.

First, I still believe the OS and the data should be in the cloud and accessible from any terminal / computers / window / whatever you want to call it. BUT there are 2 problems with having it in the cloud exclusively:

1) You’re subject to fluctuations in Internet connection speeds or bottlenecks between you and the location of your cloud / network. So delays can be present – so it’s not as user-friendly / pleasant as working with the software locally on your machine where the feedback is almost instantaneous without Internet connection speeds delaying things. So using software locally on your machine, your command doesn’t have to travel through the Internet to reach the destination and get executed

2) With no connection, you don’t have access to your data / software.

3) It’s more expensive to use your “computer” than if you just used it locally because you have to pay for the computing power in the cloud, locally (your computer) and the data transfer between your computer and the cloud (there’s the data transfer between the cloud and your interaction with other web- apps / websites etc but technically you’re paying for that when using a local computer too).

So there are clearly advantages of having your OS / data in the cloud but there are slight disadvantages that could be annoying to deal with on a day-to-day basis. The advantages however include things like:

-Being able to access all your programs from any computer with a web browser. Also as a side-note; some web-enabled phones ( I was able to access my “computer” in the cloud via my iPhone for example but the small screen made it really hard to do anything meaningful – because obviously the programs on a regular windows install are not meant to be access via a phone! so you have a lot of zooming in and scrolling up/down left/right to do constantly to use programs).

-Not having to rely on local computing power to execute programs.

-Ability to easily clone my “computer” and create many clones. For examples, have you ever wished you could clone your computer and be able to do many resource – intensive tasks at a time that way? For example if you’re using something that is eating up all your resources, like video editing for example, wouldn’t be nice to be able to clone your computer and do some more video editing – or anything else – while your other computer is churning away? So technically you could have as many “clones” as you wanted doing and unlimited number of tasks simultaneously and then kill those clones off when you didn’t need them so you only paid for the extra resources when you needed them.

-Not having to worry about “computer crashes”. Have you ever lost data because of a hardware failure. Had to spend a day or two re-installing programs whenever you bought a new computer? Technically when everything the cloud you don’t have to worry about losing your data that way ever again (note I said – technically ).

Where I think we should go now

So – after these experimentation – I came to the conclusion that it would be better to keep our ever-more powerful local machines but have everything synced to a clone computer in the “cloud”. So you could still access your programs, data, etc outside of your local machine, from any computer with a browser connected to the Internet – but you didn’t have to suffer the inconveniences listed above on a day-to-day basis. You could still have the advantages of the powerful local computing capabilities but then also be able to fire-up your “cloud” computer to have it do some additional tasks in the background so as to not use your local computer’s resources and even, as mentioned, create clones for even greater computing power.

With everything synced, then you don’t NEED your local computer but you can still use it and you don’t NEED to be connected to the Internet to access your programs and data but you still can (though a connection will be needed to synced any data addition / changes you do locally).

So I’m a little puzzled as to why we haven’t seen this yet. It seems to me that we’re all still in awe of the possibilities of web-based software and too busy trying to re-invent the wheel and turn all the software we have on our local computers now and turn them into web-apps in the cloud that we overlooked that we could just put the whole thing in the cloud instead and save a lot of time and effort.

Don’t get me wrong – I love web-apps as much as the next geek, in fact, I’m using them whenever possible just because of the freedom of being able to use them from anywhere and also because – generally – they’re much more “web conscious” than traditional local software – that is, they usually allow you to share things via the web easier – like Google docs for example, allowing you to make documents public and share them with people. I just think there must be a better way than re-inventing all software to make them web-based and have them scattered throughout the web with various providers, accessed with different logins in different locations, etc.

In my opinion, this is what Microsoft should be doing – it would be the next logical step. If they don’t do it, someone else will and if they do- then goodbye Microsoft – hard to imagine a world without Microsoft it’s also even harder to imagine people not jumping at the chance to move to something better, something that would give them unlimited computing power at the touch of a mouse and free themselves from having to worry about data loss and being without their software / data for periods of time when they don’t have their “computer” within reach or when it’s broken – yet gives them all the same benefits that they’re used to.

Plus, I mean, for someone else OTHER than Microsoft to do this, they’d have a lot of ground to make up – perhaps Apple could do it, they’ve made the most ground and are gaining more and more users as time goes on but still – for Microsoft it seems the most logical step – the best way to ensure their continuity in our lives. Then again, it may also just be what a rival needs to finally take on Microsoft. Someone else to look for to do this would be Google. They’ve already created Android so they’re already in the Operating system “game”.

I think this is an exciting time and in the next few years we will see dramatic changes in the way we use and access software and data.

I think our data and software will “follow” us anywhere we go, literally. Shifts in the way we think about how these things should be used and accessed and also continual advances in technology makes for very interesting things to look forward to! Finally, if this long article didn’t get your inner-geek excited, this video surely will!

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